Guide · 05 of 05
5 min read
How to judge the results before you trust them
Simulation, paper, and live performance are different kinds of evidence. Darvas labels them that way.
The most exciting number on a trading page is usually the least useful one by itself. A return does not tell you whether fills were simulated, whether the strategy has traded forward, or what happened during its worst decline.
Darvas publishes research because you should be able to inspect the method. It does not turn a backtest into a live record.
Three records, three meanings
01
Simulation
Historical prices are replayed through fixed rules. This is useful research, but assumed fills and past data can make the path easier than a live account.
02
Paper
Current signals create simulated positions without using capital. Paper reveals how the process behaves forward, but it still does not prove live execution.
03
Live
Real orders face spread, slippage, gaps, and operational mistakes. Darvas does not yet present customer Darvas Bot results as a live record.
Read the investor result in the right order
In the published simulation from 1 November 2023 through 27 September 2026, the combined investor book had a maximum drawdown of −6.6%. Buy-and-hold SPY drew down −18.8% in the same window. That comparison is encouraging research, not a forecast of what either path will do next.
- First: maximum drawdown — the deepest peak-to-trough decline.
- Second: the test window, market universe, sizing, and assumed costs.
- Third: whether the result is simulation, paper, or live.
- Last: total return and risk-adjusted ratios.
The safest next step
Darvas Bot is a waitlist. Live sizing stays off until the 31 October 2026 review. The earliest activation is 3 November 2026, and only if that review passes. Paper is available now.
Not financial advice. Past results, paper results, and simulations do not guarantee future returns. You can still lose money.